The NCAA needs to act

By now we've started to tire of the Cam Newton saga. (Well, at least I have.) But, since it will dominate headlines for the foreseeable future, I figured I should give my opinion on it since there is little to no talk/mention of a solution I find quite palatable.

Now, the issue cannot be "amateurism," at least not in it's purest sense. As is always mentioned, the schools and conferences make entirely too much money off of these athletes to tell them that they cannot be paid. But this is where the "They're getting paid with a scholarship" argument comes in. We all know that college is expensive, but consider the costs of an out of state athlete playing away from home.

U of M (as an example)
Annual, two-semester, non-resident tuition is averaged at $16,669
+
Add to that average annual, on campus room and board of $7,576
=
Total: $24,245
Four year total at 2010-11 average: $96,980; Five year (redshirt) total: $121,225

 Now let's take a look at the two schools that are at the center of a very heated situation:

Auburn University
Annual non-resident cost per year for "Tuition & Fees" is $21,916
+
Annual cost for "Room and Board" is $9,630
=
Total: $31,546
Four year total at 2010-11 average: $126,184; Five year (redshirt) total: $157,730

Mississippi State University

Annual non-resident cost per year for "Tuition & Fees" is $13,801
+
Annual cost for "Room and Board" is $4,494
=
Total: $18,295
Four year total at 2010-11 average: $73,180; Five year (redshirt) total: $91,475

So, using the current Cam Newton situation as a guide, let's see what this means.

Newton and/or his father allegedly asked for $100,000 to $200,000 (reports have varied) from Mississippi State for Cam's commitment. As a junior, Heisman favorite and QB for an undefeated SEC team, Newton, if he declares for the 2011 NFL Draft, will likely have played in 18 FBS games. Of those dozen-and-a-half games, 14 will come at Auburn -- all of one regular season, a SEC title game and a bowl.

For that, Auburn committed a minimum of $3,950 (estimated cost of attendance for one semester minus room and board and all other expenses) if Newton is still considered a Georgia resident. Miss. State, allegedly, was asked for at least $100,000 to acquire Newton's services, or $93,099.50 more than the cost of a one-semester rental at QB.

That's a hefty chunk of change to have a student for one semester (if he declares). So what to do about it? Let's look at two of the more talked-about "solutions."

1. Pay the players -- This is an impossibility. It's not that there isn't enough money, but it would have to be spent on all athletes, not just football players. This would make the wealthiest schools richer in every sense of the imagination. Plus, the kind of money that Newton supposedly was interested in would be far, far greater than any salary a college could offer. If he was a 5-year student at Auburn, he would have doubled (or more) his scholarship take.
2. Allow the players to be paid by agents/handlers -- This is a better solution, but not a good one. Maybe if the NFL and NCAA came to an agreement that all agents would have to be certified through them, and all transactions would have to be legal contracts and certified through the leagues, then maybe. But the NFL and NCAA are way too money/power hungry to allow one or the other to have any real sway.

My idea has two parts:

1. Allow players to be drafted earlier -- This is the best scenario and is already in place in hockey. Allow all players to become draft eligible after their freshman year (in any sport), and allow them to sign after their sophomore year. There would be few players that would make the cut as a 20-year old, but that would be up to them and their pro team. This would also allow players to avoid another year of beatings if they are considered "ready."
2. If a player leaves before they graduate, they have to pay back a portion of their scholarship. This would be a nice feather in the "academic" hat of the NCAA. On the flip side, if a player, in any sport, suffers a career ending injury, their scholarship is maintained so they can graduate.

I don't anticipate the NCAA doing much of anything to resolve the issue(s). But the NCAA needs to grow a pair and threaten severe penalties for violating current and/or future rules. Reggie Bush giving back his Heisman is a nice talker and a "plus" as far as image goes, but how long would schools and athletic departments put up with the current slate of problems if they were forced to surrender bowl money if they were found to be using ineligible players?

It's one thing to pay lip service to the issues at hand, but quite another when something meaningful happens. Look at USC. Everyone that caused problems is now gone. Their head coach is in the NFL. The dirty player is in the NFL. The current athletes take the hardest hit. Would any of this have happened if USC was forced to repay the millions of dollars they collected for playing in Rose Bowls and BCS title games? Maybe, maybe not. But the pressure from other schools would be immense. Many conferences split bowl profits. Would Stanford be okay with losing a mil or two because USC cheated? No, I don't think they would.

Another name, another dollar

The Pioneer Press decided they should stoke the fire of illogical Gopher fans by posting this on Wednesday.

Really, P.P.? Peterson, Harbaugh and Patterson (in order!) to come here? I'll give the credit, the Press mentions:

"It seems unlikely any of the trio would leave what he has built for a gigantic rebuilding challenge at Minnesota."

"Unlikely?" I'd say. But that's not what caught my interest. There was a name at the end of a Thursday post that had this:

Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo could be a candidate for the Gophers' coaching job. FootballScoop.com, an online source for coaching job information, reported Wednesday that "multiple sources" said "Minnesota athletic director Joel Maturi intends to speak with (Niumatololo)."

Not exactly what I was hoping for when I saw mention of a new name. But one thing did catch my attention, the following quote from former Hawaii coach Bob Wagner, who coached Niumatalolo:

"I think at Minnesota, you need to do something a little bit unique," he said. "Maybe down the road they will, but at least right now, you're not going to get the same players Ohio State gets. That's a reality. So you have to do something a little bit different."

I agree that we'll have to resort to some gimmicks to get things rolling early. The option could be an answer, as it controls the clock and keeps the D off the field. But I doubt the option works, mostly due to Wagner's own words: talent. Do we have the road-grating run-blocking hogs up front? I'm not so sure.

Still some work to do, but close in theory

Just a quick rendering of a thought...

I'm a big fan of Justin Bourne's blog, so when he mentioned the need for a logo, this is what I thought about. I'm not stuck on the font by any means, but gave my self a 5 min. limit to see what I could do. Meh...?

BCS thoughts

Seven days since I last posted? After creating this blog to make myself mind dump a few times a week? Yeah, someday work will be optional.

Anyway...

I wanted to get to the BCS standings that were released on Sunday. Yeah, it's a bit late. But, my opinion has not changed. Let's get to it.


-- 100, 50 -- The first number is the percent chance the team plays for the BCS title if they run the table. The second number is the chance they run the table.

1    Auburn, 8-0 .9371 -- 100, 50 -- Ole Miss could be a trap game, but Cam Heisman won't let it be. If the Tigers can win the season finale at Bama, the BCS title game should be a coronation.
2    Oregon, 7-0 .9069 -- 100, 99 -- I almost went for a perfect 200 here, but there is the slightest of chances that USC pulls the upset this week. The Trojans are thin on D, inconsistent on O (despite recent success) but crazy talented.
3    Boise State, 6-0 .8846 -- 1, 100 -- Not only would the Broncos need losses from Auburn and Oregon, but also Michigan State and Missouri. Could it happen? Sure. But that would probably mean Alabama and Oklahoma win out. In which case, Boise State will be third again.
4    TCU, 8-0 .8833 -- 0.99, 100 -- Pretty much in the same boat as Boise State, but with a bigger test in conference. The Broncos have Nevada left, but TCU gets unbeaten Utah.
5    Michigan State, 8-0 .8387 -- 50, 50 -- Iowa this week and Penn State to close. Oh, both on the road. A tough sell for a team that has lost a bit of their rush attack going into a stretch where weather will be their primary opponent.
6    Missouri, 7-0 .8006 -- 70, 20 -- If the Tigers run it, they have a great argument. It would likely mean two wins over Oklahoma and a road win at Nebraska. I don't see it, but they'll jump anyone not named Auburn or Oregon if they do.
7    Alabama, 7-1 .7100 -- 80, 80 -- It breaks down to this: Root for Auburn to be undefeated into the season finale. Beat the Tigers as handily as possible (but if Auburn is still No. 1, a win is a win) and then destroy whatever comes out of the east (a South Carolina rematch would be ideal). That, coupled with slip-ups from Michigan State and Missouri would get the Tide back into the BCS title game. Sorry, Broncos. Sorry, Frogs.
8    Utah, 7-0 .7049 -- .01, 10 -- Utah has one game left in their season, next week, at home, against TCU. Win, and the Utes get a BCS bowl bid. Lose, and, well, nice knowin' ya. But even at 12-0, Utah would need Armageddon to get into a title game.
9    Oklahoma, 6-1 .6691 -- 60, 90 -- The final Big 12 title game (until it moves north, anyway) is the big one left for the Sooners. Win out, and we'll talk. Much like Bama, OU needs losses from the current unbeatens. Unlike Bama, there's not much the Sooners can do about it, barring an undefeated Missouri and a rematch in Dallas.
10    Wisconsin, 7-1 .6584 -- 5, 75 -- A loss to Michigan State is probably too much to overcome, especially with so many name brands ahead of the Badgers. But, a lot of craziness, and a good showing against Michigan, could get the Badgers into the BCS picture. But, in a classic BCS conundrum...
11    Ohio State, 7-1 .6356 -- 1, 75 -- The Buckeyes, if they run the table, will get a BCS bowl bid. The title game is all but lost, but their schedule is tougher than Wisconsin's, so running the table should vault OSU ahead of the Badgers. Only in DI football.
12    LSU, 7-1 .6219 -- 15, 20 -- Beating Bama next week would be huge. But it would also more than likely kill the Tigers chances. The Tide would have (at least) two losses then, and the computers hate losses more than Les Miles hates extra time on the clock.
13    Stanford, 6-1 .5185 -- 1, 80 -- With only one ranked team left (Arizona), the Cardinal just don't have enough bullets to take everyone down.
14    Nebraska, 6-1 .5073 -- .5, 50 -- The Huskers should beat Mizzou at home. They can hang with Oklahoma in Dallas. They cannot play a Big 10 schedule to knock off who they need to. Next year, Nebraska. Next year.
15    Arizona, 6-1 .4492 -- .01, 0 -- Even running the table, which would mean wins over Stanford and Oregon, would not get Arizona into the conversation. Why? They're Arizona. Not a name brand.
16    Florida State, 6-1 .4395 -- .009, 80 -- Maybe they lose to NC State. Maybe they lose the ACC title game. For sure the blowout at Oklahoma lingers in voters heads.
17    Oklahoma State, 6-1 .3053 -- .001, 0 -- Beating Baylor is no longer a given. Beating Oklahoma never has been. Missing WRs is. The Cowboys will get it together someday. Just not any day this year.
18    Iowa, 5-2 .2834; 19 Arkansas, 5-2 .2481; 20 South Carolina, 5-2 .2431; 21 Mississippi State, 6-2 .1959; 22 Miami (FL), 5-2 .1799; 23 Virginia Tech, 6-2 .1367; 24 Nevada, 6-1 .0865; 25 Baylor, 6-2 .0403 -- 0, N/A -- Two losses playing in a title game? It's the BCS, anything can happen. But only Arkansas, South Carolina and Mississippi State can do it. Yes, because they're SEC teams. But, no, they can't.

It's black and white for Gray: QB is in his future

MarQueis Gray told the Star Tribune that he wants to catch more passes and more touchdowns this year. He also said he'd like to be the one throwing those passes next year. In his Gridiron Gold blog, Phil Miller quotes Gray:

"If the coach thinks I'm a receiver, we're going to talk about it, because I want to play quarterback next year. That's what I'm going to work at in the offseason."

It would be easy to think that Gray, despite very little playing time at the position, is the no-brainer at QB in 2011. But he doesn't have much say right now. Until the big office at TCF Bank Stadium is filled, Gray is left to wonder with the rest of us.

In the same blog post, Miller quotes interim head coach Jeff Horton:

"We were going to probably incorporate what they call the 'pistol' offense now, do some of those things,"

That would be an interesting, but difficult transition. Gray, like Adam Weber, has had to deal with different coordinators and offensive schemes year in and year out. Ask Rick Neuheisal how easy the Pistol is to implement. His UCLA team has struggled since spring practice to get it right.

That is not to say that Gray couldn't do it. He may be a better fit in a run-first spread system like Oregon, or a more balanced spread like Florida. But Gray has immense talent and it would be hard for a new coach to overlook No. 5.

But without a true head coach, the next scheme is unknown. But Gray only need to look at the depth chart to like his chances next fall. There will be one junior, Adam Lueck (Eden Prairie); one RS sophomores, Moses Alipate (Jefferson); and two RS freshmen, Tom Parish (Hartland, Wisc.) and J. D. Pride (Totino-Grace).

None were as highly touted as Gray (a 4-star prospect according Rivals.com) coming out of high school. Alipate (3-stars) and Parish (3-stars) had okay grades while Pride (2-stars) and Lueck (N/A) would be considered projects or repositioned.

And while we're at it, a quick look at verbal commitments for 2011 don't show much either. Max Shortell (Shawnee Mission, Kan.) is rated 3-stars, but will likely take a redshirt.

If the new coach implements any type of offense that needs mobility from the QB position, Gray is all but guaranteed the spot -- unless Parish surges past him in the spring. If the new coach wants to run a pro-style set, Gray might end up competing with Alipate.

But in the end, it's hard to imagine a situation where Gray is, at the very least, given the opportunity to start 2011 as the man. Whether or not he finishes it that way could be more a product of the new head coach than of his ability.