BCS thoughts

Seven days since I last posted? After creating this blog to make myself mind dump a few times a week? Yeah, someday work will be optional.

Anyway...

I wanted to get to the BCS standings that were released on Sunday. Yeah, it's a bit late. But, my opinion has not changed. Let's get to it.


-- 100, 50 -- The first number is the percent chance the team plays for the BCS title if they run the table. The second number is the chance they run the table.

1    Auburn, 8-0 .9371 -- 100, 50 -- Ole Miss could be a trap game, but Cam Heisman won't let it be. If the Tigers can win the season finale at Bama, the BCS title game should be a coronation.
2    Oregon, 7-0 .9069 -- 100, 99 -- I almost went for a perfect 200 here, but there is the slightest of chances that USC pulls the upset this week. The Trojans are thin on D, inconsistent on O (despite recent success) but crazy talented.
3    Boise State, 6-0 .8846 -- 1, 100 -- Not only would the Broncos need losses from Auburn and Oregon, but also Michigan State and Missouri. Could it happen? Sure. But that would probably mean Alabama and Oklahoma win out. In which case, Boise State will be third again.
4    TCU, 8-0 .8833 -- 0.99, 100 -- Pretty much in the same boat as Boise State, but with a bigger test in conference. The Broncos have Nevada left, but TCU gets unbeaten Utah.
5    Michigan State, 8-0 .8387 -- 50, 50 -- Iowa this week and Penn State to close. Oh, both on the road. A tough sell for a team that has lost a bit of their rush attack going into a stretch where weather will be their primary opponent.
6    Missouri, 7-0 .8006 -- 70, 20 -- If the Tigers run it, they have a great argument. It would likely mean two wins over Oklahoma and a road win at Nebraska. I don't see it, but they'll jump anyone not named Auburn or Oregon if they do.
7    Alabama, 7-1 .7100 -- 80, 80 -- It breaks down to this: Root for Auburn to be undefeated into the season finale. Beat the Tigers as handily as possible (but if Auburn is still No. 1, a win is a win) and then destroy whatever comes out of the east (a South Carolina rematch would be ideal). That, coupled with slip-ups from Michigan State and Missouri would get the Tide back into the BCS title game. Sorry, Broncos. Sorry, Frogs.
8    Utah, 7-0 .7049 -- .01, 10 -- Utah has one game left in their season, next week, at home, against TCU. Win, and the Utes get a BCS bowl bid. Lose, and, well, nice knowin' ya. But even at 12-0, Utah would need Armageddon to get into a title game.
9    Oklahoma, 6-1 .6691 -- 60, 90 -- The final Big 12 title game (until it moves north, anyway) is the big one left for the Sooners. Win out, and we'll talk. Much like Bama, OU needs losses from the current unbeatens. Unlike Bama, there's not much the Sooners can do about it, barring an undefeated Missouri and a rematch in Dallas.
10    Wisconsin, 7-1 .6584 -- 5, 75 -- A loss to Michigan State is probably too much to overcome, especially with so many name brands ahead of the Badgers. But, a lot of craziness, and a good showing against Michigan, could get the Badgers into the BCS picture. But, in a classic BCS conundrum...
11    Ohio State, 7-1 .6356 -- 1, 75 -- The Buckeyes, if they run the table, will get a BCS bowl bid. The title game is all but lost, but their schedule is tougher than Wisconsin's, so running the table should vault OSU ahead of the Badgers. Only in DI football.
12    LSU, 7-1 .6219 -- 15, 20 -- Beating Bama next week would be huge. But it would also more than likely kill the Tigers chances. The Tide would have (at least) two losses then, and the computers hate losses more than Les Miles hates extra time on the clock.
13    Stanford, 6-1 .5185 -- 1, 80 -- With only one ranked team left (Arizona), the Cardinal just don't have enough bullets to take everyone down.
14    Nebraska, 6-1 .5073 -- .5, 50 -- The Huskers should beat Mizzou at home. They can hang with Oklahoma in Dallas. They cannot play a Big 10 schedule to knock off who they need to. Next year, Nebraska. Next year.
15    Arizona, 6-1 .4492 -- .01, 0 -- Even running the table, which would mean wins over Stanford and Oregon, would not get Arizona into the conversation. Why? They're Arizona. Not a name brand.
16    Florida State, 6-1 .4395 -- .009, 80 -- Maybe they lose to NC State. Maybe they lose the ACC title game. For sure the blowout at Oklahoma lingers in voters heads.
17    Oklahoma State, 6-1 .3053 -- .001, 0 -- Beating Baylor is no longer a given. Beating Oklahoma never has been. Missing WRs is. The Cowboys will get it together someday. Just not any day this year.
18    Iowa, 5-2 .2834; 19 Arkansas, 5-2 .2481; 20 South Carolina, 5-2 .2431; 21 Mississippi State, 6-2 .1959; 22 Miami (FL), 5-2 .1799; 23 Virginia Tech, 6-2 .1367; 24 Nevada, 6-1 .0865; 25 Baylor, 6-2 .0403 -- 0, N/A -- Two losses playing in a title game? It's the BCS, anything can happen. But only Arkansas, South Carolina and Mississippi State can do it. Yes, because they're SEC teams. But, no, they can't.