Seven days since I last posted? After creating this blog to make myself mind dump a few times a week? Yeah, someday work will be optional.
Anyway...
I wanted to get to the BCS standings that were released on Sunday. Yeah, it's a bit late. But, my opinion has not changed. Let's get to it.
-- 100, 50 -- The first number is the percent chance the team plays for the BCS title if they run the table. The second number is the chance they run the table.
1 Auburn, 8-0 .9371 -- 100, 50 -- Ole Miss could be a trap game, but Cam Heisman won't let it be. If the Tigers can win the season finale at Bama, the BCS title game should be a coronation.
2 Oregon, 7-0 .9069 -- 100, 99 -- I almost went for a perfect 200 here, but there is the slightest of chances that USC pulls the upset this week. The Trojans are thin on D, inconsistent on O (despite recent success) but crazy talented.
3 Boise State, 6-0 .8846 -- 1, 100 -- Not only would the Broncos need losses from Auburn and Oregon, but also Michigan State and Missouri. Could it happen? Sure. But that would probably mean Alabama and Oklahoma win out. In which case, Boise State will be third again.
4 TCU, 8-0 .8833 -- 0.99, 100 -- Pretty much in the same boat as Boise State, but with a bigger test in conference. The Broncos have Nevada left, but TCU gets unbeaten Utah.
5 Michigan State, 8-0 .8387 -- 50, 50 -- Iowa this week and Penn State to close. Oh, both on the road. A tough sell for a team that has lost a bit of their rush attack going into a stretch where weather will be their primary opponent.
6 Missouri, 7-0 .8006 -- 70, 20 -- If the Tigers run it, they have a great argument. It would likely mean two wins over Oklahoma and a road win at Nebraska. I don't see it, but they'll jump anyone not named Auburn or Oregon if they do.
7 Alabama, 7-1 .7100 -- 80, 80 -- It breaks down to this: Root for Auburn to be undefeated into the season finale. Beat the Tigers as handily as possible (but if Auburn is still No. 1, a win is a win) and then destroy whatever comes out of the east (a South Carolina rematch would be ideal). That, coupled with slip-ups from Michigan State and Missouri would get the Tide back into the BCS title game. Sorry, Broncos. Sorry, Frogs.
8 Utah, 7-0 .7049 -- .01, 10 -- Utah has one game left in their season, next week, at home, against TCU. Win, and the Utes get a BCS bowl bid. Lose, and, well, nice knowin' ya. But even at 12-0, Utah would need Armageddon to get into a title game.
9 Oklahoma, 6-1 .6691 -- 60, 90 -- The final Big 12 title game (until it moves north, anyway) is the big one left for the Sooners. Win out, and we'll talk. Much like Bama, OU needs losses from the current unbeatens. Unlike Bama, there's not much the Sooners can do about it, barring an undefeated Missouri and a rematch in Dallas.
10 Wisconsin, 7-1 .6584 -- 5, 75 -- A loss to Michigan State is probably too much to overcome, especially with so many name brands ahead of the Badgers. But, a lot of craziness, and a good showing against Michigan, could get the Badgers into the BCS picture. But, in a classic BCS conundrum...
11 Ohio State, 7-1 .6356 -- 1, 75 -- The Buckeyes, if they run the table, will get a BCS bowl bid. The title game is all but lost, but their schedule is tougher than Wisconsin's, so running the table should vault OSU ahead of the Badgers. Only in DI football.
12 LSU, 7-1 .6219 -- 15, 20 -- Beating Bama next week would be huge. But it would also more than likely kill the Tigers chances. The Tide would have (at least) two losses then, and the computers hate losses more than Les Miles hates extra time on the clock.
13 Stanford, 6-1 .5185 -- 1, 80 -- With only one ranked team left (Arizona), the Cardinal just don't have enough bullets to take everyone down.
14 Nebraska, 6-1 .5073 -- .5, 50 -- The Huskers should beat Mizzou at home. They can hang with Oklahoma in Dallas. They cannot play a Big 10 schedule to knock off who they need to. Next year, Nebraska. Next year.
15 Arizona, 6-1 .4492 -- .01, 0 -- Even running the table, which would mean wins over Stanford and Oregon, would not get Arizona into the conversation. Why? They're Arizona. Not a name brand.
16 Florida State, 6-1 .4395 -- .009, 80 -- Maybe they lose to NC State. Maybe they lose the ACC title game. For sure the blowout at Oklahoma lingers in voters heads.
17 Oklahoma State, 6-1 .3053 -- .001, 0 -- Beating Baylor is no longer a given. Beating Oklahoma never has been. Missing WRs is. The Cowboys will get it together someday. Just not any day this year.
18 Iowa, 5-2 .2834; 19 Arkansas, 5-2 .2481; 20 South Carolina, 5-2 .2431; 21 Mississippi State, 6-2 .1959; 22 Miami (FL), 5-2 .1799; 23 Virginia Tech, 6-2 .1367; 24 Nevada, 6-1 .0865; 25 Baylor, 6-2 .0403 -- 0, N/A -- Two losses playing in a title game? It's the BCS, anything can happen. But only Arkansas, South Carolina and Mississippi State can do it. Yes, because they're SEC teams. But, no, they can't.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
It's black and white for Gray: QB is in his future
MarQueis Gray told the Star Tribune that he wants to catch more passes and more touchdowns this year. He also said he'd like to be the one throwing those passes next year. In his Gridiron Gold blog, Phil Miller quotes Gray:
In the same blog post, Miller quotes interim head coach Jeff Horton:
That is not to say that Gray couldn't do it. He may be a better fit in a run-first spread system like Oregon, or a more balanced spread like Florida. But Gray has immense talent and it would be hard for a new coach to overlook No. 5.
But without a true head coach, the next scheme is unknown. But Gray only need to look at the depth chart to like his chances next fall. There will be one junior, Adam Lueck (Eden Prairie); one RS sophomores, Moses Alipate (Jefferson); and two RS freshmen, Tom Parish (Hartland, Wisc.) and J. D. Pride (Totino-Grace).
None were as highly touted as Gray (a 4-star prospect according Rivals.com) coming out of high school. Alipate (3-stars) and Parish (3-stars) had okay grades while Pride (2-stars) and Lueck (N/A) would be considered projects or repositioned.
And while we're at it, a quick look at verbal commitments for 2011 don't show much either. Max Shortell (Shawnee Mission, Kan.) is rated 3-stars, but will likely take a redshirt.
If the new coach implements any type of offense that needs mobility from the QB position, Gray is all but guaranteed the spot -- unless Parish surges past him in the spring. If the new coach wants to run a pro-style set, Gray might end up competing with Alipate.
But in the end, it's hard to imagine a situation where Gray is, at the very least, given the opportunity to start 2011 as the man. Whether or not he finishes it that way could be more a product of the new head coach than of his ability.
"If the coach thinks I'm a receiver, we're going to talk about it, because I want to play quarterback next year. That's what I'm going to work at in the offseason."It would be easy to think that Gray, despite very little playing time at the position, is the no-brainer at QB in 2011. But he doesn't have much say right now. Until the big office at TCF Bank Stadium is filled, Gray is left to wonder with the rest of us.
In the same blog post, Miller quotes interim head coach Jeff Horton:
"We were going to probably incorporate what they call the 'pistol' offense now, do some of those things,"That would be an interesting, but difficult transition. Gray, like Adam Weber, has had to deal with different coordinators and offensive schemes year in and year out. Ask Rick Neuheisal how easy the Pistol is to implement. His UCLA team has struggled since spring practice to get it right.
That is not to say that Gray couldn't do it. He may be a better fit in a run-first spread system like Oregon, or a more balanced spread like Florida. But Gray has immense talent and it would be hard for a new coach to overlook No. 5.
But without a true head coach, the next scheme is unknown. But Gray only need to look at the depth chart to like his chances next fall. There will be one junior, Adam Lueck (Eden Prairie); one RS sophomores, Moses Alipate (Jefferson); and two RS freshmen, Tom Parish (Hartland, Wisc.) and J. D. Pride (Totino-Grace).
None were as highly touted as Gray (a 4-star prospect according Rivals.com) coming out of high school. Alipate (3-stars) and Parish (3-stars) had okay grades while Pride (2-stars) and Lueck (N/A) would be considered projects or repositioned.
And while we're at it, a quick look at verbal commitments for 2011 don't show much either. Max Shortell (Shawnee Mission, Kan.) is rated 3-stars, but will likely take a redshirt.
If the new coach implements any type of offense that needs mobility from the QB position, Gray is all but guaranteed the spot -- unless Parish surges past him in the spring. If the new coach wants to run a pro-style set, Gray might end up competing with Alipate.
But in the end, it's hard to imagine a situation where Gray is, at the very least, given the opportunity to start 2011 as the man. Whether or not he finishes it that way could be more a product of the new head coach than of his ability.
Monday, October 18, 2010
NFL to players: "Go low"
The NFL has decided that all "devastating hits" and "head shots," (ESPN) will result in suspensions for every incident, first time offender or not.
If there is anyone out there that disagrees with a fine/suspension for a head-to-head hit, I hope you take a shot to the chin. Okay, I don't, really, but c'mon, this is an issue. While I don't quite understand what a "devastating hit" is, I do understand head-to-head. I took several shots to the head -- from another's head -- while playing. I still have the headaches to prove it.
But the "devastating hits" is ridiculous. Does that mean broken ribs? Stingers? Really, that is way too ambiguous to regulate.
It reminds me of the crackdown on "blindside" hits that resulted from the Steelers' Hines Ward. More often than not, Ward led with a shoulder. Was it to the head? Yeah, it was. Was it devastating? Yeah, it was. Was it illegal? Well, it ended up being so. But at least we had an example.
What gets me is what we expect from these leagues. Do we want them to be gladiator-like? Do we want them to be human-plus? (Human-plus being what an average Joe can do but better.)
I, for one, love my NFL football to be violent. Sure, I cringe when I see a Khaseem Greene-type situation. I have been close to that situation. I have hit the ground with no feeling. Anywhere. (My first thought was that my mom would kill me. My second thought was convulsive tears.)
I agree with the NFL: Head shots are horrible. But what is a "devastating hit?"
I hope the league figures this out. I don't want to see any more Greene-type situations. Every time I see it, I can't help but think of Mike Utley. What Mike has done is, well, phenomenal. But I can't help but imagine a life uninterrupted.
Utley is what the NFL wants to avoid, and I can't blame them. But at what price? The joke is that QB's are already wearing skirts, are receivers and tight ends next?
It's a controversial and, basically, mean stance to say that you choose your way of life. But when it comes to professional athletics, it's true.
Yet, for as much as I love a hit over the middle, a glimpse at Mike Utley, the viewing of Khaseem Greene's hit, my own non-feeling, it all makes for a head-dropping feeling. Gladiators are relics of the past for a reason. These are people. These are sons, fathers, brothers. Let them complete their most basic roles in life before we make them into a modern day Maximus.
If there is anyone out there that disagrees with a fine/suspension for a head-to-head hit, I hope you take a shot to the chin. Okay, I don't, really, but c'mon, this is an issue. While I don't quite understand what a "devastating hit" is, I do understand head-to-head. I took several shots to the head -- from another's head -- while playing. I still have the headaches to prove it.
But the "devastating hits" is ridiculous. Does that mean broken ribs? Stingers? Really, that is way too ambiguous to regulate.
It reminds me of the crackdown on "blindside" hits that resulted from the Steelers' Hines Ward. More often than not, Ward led with a shoulder. Was it to the head? Yeah, it was. Was it devastating? Yeah, it was. Was it illegal? Well, it ended up being so. But at least we had an example.
What gets me is what we expect from these leagues. Do we want them to be gladiator-like? Do we want them to be human-plus? (Human-plus being what an average Joe can do but better.)
I, for one, love my NFL football to be violent. Sure, I cringe when I see a Khaseem Greene-type situation. I have been close to that situation. I have hit the ground with no feeling. Anywhere. (My first thought was that my mom would kill me. My second thought was convulsive tears.)
I agree with the NFL: Head shots are horrible. But what is a "devastating hit?"
I hope the league figures this out. I don't want to see any more Greene-type situations. Every time I see it, I can't help but think of Mike Utley. What Mike has done is, well, phenomenal. But I can't help but imagine a life uninterrupted.
Utley is what the NFL wants to avoid, and I can't blame them. But at what price? The joke is that QB's are already wearing skirts, are receivers and tight ends next?
It's a controversial and, basically, mean stance to say that you choose your way of life. But when it comes to professional athletics, it's true.
Yet, for as much as I love a hit over the middle, a glimpse at Mike Utley, the viewing of Khaseem Greene's hit, my own non-feeling, it all makes for a head-dropping feeling. Gladiators are relics of the past for a reason. These are people. These are sons, fathers, brothers. Let them complete their most basic roles in life before we make them into a modern day Maximus.
Outside the box
I recently posted some names that could be in the U's targets when they start their search for Tim Brewster's replacement. Many of those names are ones fans and media have mentioned over and over for the past year. Instead of adding to the list of the obvious, let's take a gander at some other names that warrant at least a glimpse.
Luke Fickell, co-defensive coordinator/LB coach at Ohio State
Why it would work: As a former Buckeye defensive lineman -- and a four-year starter at that -- Fickell has ties to the Big 10. He has spent nine years in Columbus under Jim Tressel, the last five in his current role. Fickell is also regarded a a good-if-not-great recruiter. But the biggest reason he might fit? Tressel. Every mention of Fickell begins or ends with the mention of being a future head coach. Tressel isn't likely to go anywhere until 2014, at the earliest, which means Fickell might have to don other colors to get his shot.
Why it wouldn't: He's 100-percent Ohio. He went to high school in Ohio, graduated a Buckeye and has spent his entire coaching career, which started as a grad assistant at Akron in 1999, in the state. Chances are his first shot at a head gig will come from within those borders.
What it would cost: I don't think salary would be an issue (he currently sits at $250K/year) with the hiring of Fickell, but ticket sales would be. Again, this is a fan base that wants a splash. While a big name isn't likely to come lead this program, the Gophers' faithful at least want name recognition.
Craig Bohl, head coach at North Dakota State
Why it would work: Bohl took NDSU from Div-II into FCS and, 2009 aside, has had a lot of success in Fargo including 10-1 records in 2006 and 2007. Add to that a 3-3 record against FBS opponents and it appears Bohl certainly has the "coaching" part of his job down pat.
Why it wouldn't: Again, no splash here. There is also a question of recruiting. Game-planning and motivation are key components to winning, but talent makes more of a difference in the Big 10 than it does in the Missouri Valley.
What it would cost: Not much in salary (Bohl, with all of his goofy incentives, tops out at a not-likely-to-get-there $300K/year), and probably less of a hit in tickets than Fickell. He isn't a big name, but a quick reminder of his Bison and their 27-21 win against the Gophers in 2007 might quell early speculation.
Dave Christensen, head coach at Wyoming
Why it would work: In his only season at the top, Christensen went 7-6. Not great, but remember, this is Wyoming we're talking about. Lopsided losses to Texas, BYU, and TCU didn't help, but the Boys played tough at Utah (L, 22-10) and at Air Force (L, 10-0). Couple that with wins against San Diego State, UNLV, at Colorado State and against Fresno State in a bowl game. Seems the Cowboys may have found their man.
Why it wouldn't: He's signed through 2014 after inking an extension this spring.
What it would cost: A pittance. Christensen makes $180K/year. Even at a half-mil, he'd probably jump at it.
And now for a pie-in-the-sky choice...
Rob Chudzinski, assistant head coach/TE coach of San Diego Chargers
Why it would work: Chudzinski was a three-year starter at TE for Miami in the late 80s, winning national titles in '87 and '89 with the Hurricanes. As TE coach at Miami, he helped develop Kellen Winslow, Jr., Jeremy Shockey and Bubba Franks into high-caliber NFL talents. Chudzinski was also the OC for Miami's impressive three-year run of BCS bowls that included two title game appearances and one championship.
Why it wouldn't: He's a long shot in the Tony Dungy mold. Though an Ohio native, Chudzinski has spent most of his career in the southeast and southwest, save for two stints with the Browns (2004, 2007-08).
What it would cost: A prohibitive amount. Chudzinski seems to be angling for a high profile OC job in the NFL, or a similarly high profile gig as a head college man. If Randy Shannon continues to struggle in Miami, the Canes may have their next coach in Chudzinski.
Luke Fickell, co-defensive coordinator/LB coach at Ohio State
Why it would work: As a former Buckeye defensive lineman -- and a four-year starter at that -- Fickell has ties to the Big 10. He has spent nine years in Columbus under Jim Tressel, the last five in his current role. Fickell is also regarded a a good-if-not-great recruiter. But the biggest reason he might fit? Tressel. Every mention of Fickell begins or ends with the mention of being a future head coach. Tressel isn't likely to go anywhere until 2014, at the earliest, which means Fickell might have to don other colors to get his shot.
Why it wouldn't: He's 100-percent Ohio. He went to high school in Ohio, graduated a Buckeye and has spent his entire coaching career, which started as a grad assistant at Akron in 1999, in the state. Chances are his first shot at a head gig will come from within those borders.
What it would cost: I don't think salary would be an issue (he currently sits at $250K/year) with the hiring of Fickell, but ticket sales would be. Again, this is a fan base that wants a splash. While a big name isn't likely to come lead this program, the Gophers' faithful at least want name recognition.
Craig Bohl, head coach at North Dakota State
Why it would work: Bohl took NDSU from Div-II into FCS and, 2009 aside, has had a lot of success in Fargo including 10-1 records in 2006 and 2007. Add to that a 3-3 record against FBS opponents and it appears Bohl certainly has the "coaching" part of his job down pat.
Why it wouldn't: Again, no splash here. There is also a question of recruiting. Game-planning and motivation are key components to winning, but talent makes more of a difference in the Big 10 than it does in the Missouri Valley.
What it would cost: Not much in salary (Bohl, with all of his goofy incentives, tops out at a not-likely-to-get-there $300K/year), and probably less of a hit in tickets than Fickell. He isn't a big name, but a quick reminder of his Bison and their 27-21 win against the Gophers in 2007 might quell early speculation.
Dave Christensen, head coach at Wyoming
Why it would work: In his only season at the top, Christensen went 7-6. Not great, but remember, this is Wyoming we're talking about. Lopsided losses to Texas, BYU, and TCU didn't help, but the Boys played tough at Utah (L, 22-10) and at Air Force (L, 10-0). Couple that with wins against San Diego State, UNLV, at Colorado State and against Fresno State in a bowl game. Seems the Cowboys may have found their man.
Why it wouldn't: He's signed through 2014 after inking an extension this spring.
What it would cost: A pittance. Christensen makes $180K/year. Even at a half-mil, he'd probably jump at it.
And now for a pie-in-the-sky choice...
Rob Chudzinski, assistant head coach/TE coach of San Diego Chargers
Why it would work: Chudzinski was a three-year starter at TE for Miami in the late 80s, winning national titles in '87 and '89 with the Hurricanes. As TE coach at Miami, he helped develop Kellen Winslow, Jr., Jeremy Shockey and Bubba Franks into high-caliber NFL talents. Chudzinski was also the OC for Miami's impressive three-year run of BCS bowls that included two title game appearances and one championship.
Why it wouldn't: He's a long shot in the Tony Dungy mold. Though an Ohio native, Chudzinski has spent most of his career in the southeast and southwest, save for two stints with the Browns (2004, 2007-08).
What it would cost: A prohibitive amount. Chudzinski seems to be angling for a high profile OC job in the NFL, or a similarly high profile gig as a head college man. If Randy Shannon continues to struggle in Miami, the Canes may have their next coach in Chudzinski.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Favre "fine," "nervous"
Whew! It was at times ugly, hopeful, ugly, redeeming, ugly and ugly.
But, mostly, it was Ug. Ly.
Still, a win is a win, and the only team more desperate for a mark in the left column than the Vikings was the Cowboys.
On a side note: How far has Romo's stock fallen? The guy was the savior of the blue and silver only, what, two/three years ago? Now? He plays like Brett Favre circa two/three years ago. He throws into double and triple coverage. He has the attitude of a 6-year-old that got vanilla instead of chocolate ice cream and has the most talent in the league -- at least according to the experts.
So a victory can not be discounted at this point in the season. The Packers fell on their face again, and Chicago inspires less confidence than Tim Brewster.
But Adrian Peterson struggled to 73 yards on 24 carries. He did find the end zone, but the once right-around-the-corner breakaway runs are few and far between these days. And Favre. Don't get me started on Favre. What? I already started? Fine, let me finish. Brett, please, hit your target in stride. The quick slant is how you made your career. Now you struggle to get the ball to the numbers of your receiver. I know, you're getting killed. I can't cut McKinnie, and, really, neither can your team. His hands are so deep in the Purple's pockets that cutting him would mean losing a fat wallet.
But, there can be a big smile of a redemption next week. Yes, it's Packers week. Their fans will want blood. Their players will want blood (transfusions. Seriously, they are decimated. If they weren't the Green and Gold, I'd feel bad.) A nice, two-score win would ease the blood pressure of an entire state.
Go get it done, Vikes. (Unless you think you could still make the playoffs with a loss that results in the firing of Chili.)
But, mostly, it was Ug. Ly.
Still, a win is a win, and the only team more desperate for a mark in the left column than the Vikings was the Cowboys.
On a side note: How far has Romo's stock fallen? The guy was the savior of the blue and silver only, what, two/three years ago? Now? He plays like Brett Favre circa two/three years ago. He throws into double and triple coverage. He has the attitude of a 6-year-old that got vanilla instead of chocolate ice cream and has the most talent in the league -- at least according to the experts.
So a victory can not be discounted at this point in the season. The Packers fell on their face again, and Chicago inspires less confidence than Tim Brewster.
 | ||
| "Fine" after physical beating, "nervous" about Pack. (ESPN photo) |
But, there can be a big smile of a redemption next week. Yes, it's Packers week. Their fans will want blood. Their players will want blood (transfusions. Seriously, they are decimated. If they weren't the Green and Gold, I'd feel bad.) A nice, two-score win would ease the blood pressure of an entire state.
Go get it done, Vikes. (Unless you think you could still make the playoffs with a loss that results in the firing of Chili.)
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