Saturday, December 18, 2010

Every. Game. Matters. (Kind of.)

Mark Cuban wants to fund a playoff. He says that the BCS is “an inefficient business where there’s obviously a better way.” That better way would involve Cuban putting $500 million into an account and paying teams every five years assuming they are open to, and accept, a playoff bid. There had to be a quick rebuttal from the BCS before this got any legs. Executive director Bill Hancock tried to shoot it down.
"Given how much support our current system has among university presidents, athletics directors, coaches and athletes, I don't think any amount of financial inducement will make people abandon" the BCS.
Well, what else was he supposed to say? He could have stopped at "university presidents" because that's who really matters. AD's are going to follow the company line, especially when their salary is tied to the man in the bigger office. Coaches are tied to AD's and are hence tied to presidents. Players probably don't give a damn, unless the playoff format means they no longer get to take home a PlayStation 3 from some random December bowl game.

But when I hear about the popularity of the game being at it's highest point, I kind of chuckle. Yes, it probably is. But it has room to grow. Heck, a playoff might get it back to being more popular than the NFL. Seriously. The NFL has the sports world cornered from August to February. But think of the NBA vs. college hoops. There are fans of one or the other, and fans of both. There are more and more people leaving the NBA, and basketball in general. But no one leaves March Madness. When the brackets are announced, the hard core fans must move over to make room for that one guy that always touts his alma mater. The die-hards must acquiesce their beer money to the secretary that always seems to win the pool by picking mascots and jersey colors.

This is all a round about way of saying, Who cares about the regular season (more on that in a second)? Who cares if a playoff ends bowl games (it won't)? Who cares? Fans do.

Before I get to the regular season, I have to say this: The BCS has been better than I ever expected it to be. They've had a fair No. 1 vs. No. 2 match up more often than not. But the argument for most people isn't that it doesn't work, it's that it doesn't ALWAYS work. Auburn has been spurned before. Boise State, TCU and Utah have been spurned. Michigan State will get the honor of watching UConn play in a BCS bowl when the Huskies lost three more games than Sparty, and to far inferior teams. Cuban is right, there is simply a better way.

Now, about that pesky regular season. Bear with me.

I took a gander at the 2010 regular season and noticed something. Games pretty much start to not matter in week five or six. (Going on history, I used the following formula to disqualify teams: BCS conference teams were out with their second loss, except for SEC teams (designated with a +) who were out after a third loss. Non-AQ teams (designated with a ^) were out after their first loss. Any team that lost to an FCS school (designated with a *), at any point, were out.)

There are 120 teams in FBS football (66 AQ, 54 non-AQ), so follow the countdown to important games. To the results!


Week 1 (Sept. 4), 28 of 120 teams were eliminated:

^Akron, ^Arkansas State, ^Bowling Green, ^Colorado State, ^Eastern Mich., ^Hawaii, *Kansas, ^Lousiana-Lafayette, ^Marshall, ^Memphis, ^Miami (OH), ^Middle Tenn. State, ^Navy, ^New Mexico, ^North Texas, ^NIU, ^Rice, ^SMU, ^Southern Miss, ^San Jose State, ^Toledo,
^Tulsa, ^UAB, ^UNLV, USC (bowl ban), ^Utah, ^Western Kentucky, ^Western Michigan
64 of 66 AQ teams alvie; 28 of 54 non-AQ left

Week 2 (Sept. 11), 20 of 92 teams were eliminated:
^Army, ^BYU, ^Cent. Michigan, ^Buffalo, ^Ball State, ^Florida Atlantic, ^Florida International, ^Idaho, ^Kent State, ^Louisiana Tech, ^Louisiana-Monroe, ^New Mexico State, ^Ohio, ^Troy, ^Tulane, ^UCF, UCLA, ^UTEP, Virginia Tech, ^Wyoming
62 AQ teams alive; 10 non-AQ teams alive

Week 3 (Sept. 18), 15 of 72 teams were eliminated:
^Air Force, Cincinnati, Connecticut, ^East Carolina, ^Houston, Louisville, Duke, Iowa State, Minnesota, ^Nevada, Notre Dame, North Carolina, San Diego State, Washington, Washington State
51 AQ teams alive; 6 non-AQ teams alive

So, after three weeks of football, more than half of the 120 teams have been eliminated from BCS title game aspirations. For 63 teams, the whole "every week matters" really means the first month or so. Moving on.

Week 4 (Sept. 25), 10 of 57 teams were eliminated:
Arizona State, Cal, ^Fresno State, +Georgia, Georgia Tech, Oregon State, Pitt, Purdue, ^Temple, Wake Forest
43 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

Week 5 (Oct. 2), 10 of 47 teams were eliminated:
Boston College, Clemson, Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers, +Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, +Vanderbilt, Virginia
33 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive


Week 6 (Oct. 9), 7 of 37 teams were eliminated:
Baylor, Colorado, Indiana, +Kentucky, Miami (FL), South Florida, Texas A&M
26 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

After six weeks, there are 25-percent of teams with title hopes. For 30 teams, the next six to eight games are VERY important. For 90 teams, it's all about playing out the schedule and beating a rival while recruits are on campus.

Week 7 (Oct. 16), 6 of 30 teams were eliminated:
+Florida, Maryland, Michigan, +Mississippi, NC State, Syracuse


20 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

Week 8 (Oct. 23), 4 of 24 teams were eliminated:
Iowa, Kansas State, Northwestern, West Virginia

16 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

Week 9 (Oct. 30), 1 of 20 teams were eliminated:
Florida State
15 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

Week 10 (Nov. 6), 5 of 19 teams were eliminated:
Arizona, Missouri, Oklahoma, +South Carolina, ^Utah
11 AQ teams alive; 3 non-AQ teams alive

Week 11 (Nov. 13), 1 of 14 teams were eliminated:
+Mississippi State


10 AQ teams alive; 3 non-AQ teams alive

Week 12 (Nov. 20), 1 of 13 teams were eliminated:
Nebraska

9 AQ teams alive; 3 non-AQ teams alive

Three weeks to go, and a whopping 10-percent of teams have title hopes. This is exactly what the BCS wants. Late season games with championship implications. If only...
Week 13 (Nov. 27), 3 of 12 teams were eliminated:
+Alabama, ^Boise State, Oklahoma State

7 AQ teams alive; 2 non-AQ teams alive

Week 14/Conf. Title (Dec. 4), 0 of 9 teams were eliminated:

7 AQ teams alive; 2 non-AQ teams alive

Wow! What an exhilarating ride those conference championship games were. The SEC was the only one with any impact on the BCS standings, and that was for all of a half. Maybe. Same goes for the Pac-10. No title game, but a rivalry game. Nice. For a half. Maybe.

Week 15 (Dec. 11)
7 of 9 teams were eliminated:
+Arkansas, Michigan State, +LSU, Ohio State, Stanford, TCU, Wisconsin
2 AQ teams alive (Auburn and Oregon); 0 non-AQ teams alive

Now that's what I'm talking about! So many teams came into the final week of the season with a chance to go to the title game, and there were so many upsets that it all worked out. The BCS has done it again! I'm sorry, I couldn't hear you over the joyous applause, what did you say? There was only one game in week 15? Army/Navy? How is that possible? TCU obviously played and lost, or else they would still be alive, and it's obvious that's not the case.

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