Thursday, December 30, 2010

Why, hello 2011. You look nice.

I love ranking things. I love lists. I loved 2010.

Brett Favre's collapse. The Twins making us shake our heads. Gopher football making us bury our heads. U hoops making us raise our heads. Wracking our brains as we try to figure where, when and for whom Kevin Love will be traded. The Wild giving us headaches from working so much overtime in order to afford tickets. Yes, 2010 was awesome. But if there is anything I love more than rankings and lists, it's predictions. It's everything in one, and 2010 has nothing on the 2011 I see coming. 

January
Oregon and Auburn play the greatest BCS title game in history. In a rare act of vigilance, the NCAA refuses to allow the third overtime to be played because they'll be out of town until August and a returned trophy clutters their mailbox. The championship is given to Ohio State after Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney and Sugar Bowl CEO Paul Hoolahan lobbied for the award. "These kids had no idea they weren't playing for a championship," OSU AD Gene Smith said.
Hoolahan, nodding, remarked, "These kids deserve to play in this game, and the integrity of the Sugar Bowl depends on it being a game with national championship implications."

Butch Davis, former head coach at the University of North Carolina, is hired for the same position by the Denver Broncos. When asked about the controversial hire, Broncos owner/chairman/CEO/president Pat Bowlen remarked, "Butch has been a very successful head coach for many years. After our last hire, we wanted a guy with professional head coaching experience and Butch fits that profile. From Miami to Cleveland to Carolina, Butch has proven he can handle guys who make more money than he does."

February
The New England Patriots win their fourth Super Bowl, but will catch Spy Gate-level heat for their 66-13 beat down of Philly. Tom Brady, who earns Super Bowl MVP No. 3, insists during his post game interview that there were "a few points we left on the field." Shortly after the game, Danny Woodhead, who had two touchdowns for the champs, is arrested for minor consumption. Pats head coach Bill Belichick said he will cut Woodhead. "We're not going to spend hundreds of dollars to pay a guy's fine when we can replace him for $18."

Michael Vick announces his wish to continue playing for the Eagles in the future. "This organization is known to take risks," he said. "They took a chance on me, and I'm willing to take a chance that this year wasn't a fluke, that this O-line will hold up, and that coach Reid doesn't decide to throw it 60-times a game."

March
The University of Dayton nearly sells out its arena for the four first round games of the NCAA men's basketball tournament. "We were just short of 6,000 for day one, and just over for day two," NCAA president Mark Emmert said. "Do the math. This arena seats 13,000-plus and for us to nearly get there was a great show of support from the people of Ohio." Emmert, who has held his post for less than a year, sees great things ahead for the tournament. "The 96-team thing is still lingering, but it's not a priority," Emmert said. "There has been some talk about 256, but that leaves 90 teams still out. I think, once we figure out how to deal with those other teams, the tournament should encompass all of college basketball." When asked about incorporating Division 2 and 3, Emmert smiled but refused to comment.

The University of Minnesota wins two games in the Tournament prompting AD Joel Maturi to give Tubby Smith a 10-year, $55 million contract extension. The deal reportedly includes a $10,000 buyout if Smith leaves before 2012. Some criticized the move, citing Smith's up-and-down tenure as Gophers coach. Others think Smith won't make it to a Minnesota summer. "There is no truth to the rumors about me moving to Indiana, UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee or any other downtrodden traditional power or warm weather locale," Smith said while shopping in Bloomington. "My house is too small, that's why it's on the market."

April
Duke wins its fifth national title with a spirited 89-54 come-from-behind win over Syracuse. "I thought we were done," Duke head coach Mike Kryzewski said of his team's early 2-0 deficit. "But you've got to hand it to these kids. They refused to quit. They refused to give in."

With the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select Jim Harbaugh, head coach, Stanford University. In what can only be seen as a show of complete disrespect, Harbaugh was not in attendance. Reached later for comment was caught off-guard. "I just didn't anticipate this. I was out scouting in central California and I got a phone call," he said. "Really, I'm just happy to be back in the NFL. I was a late first-rounder the first time and that was nice. But this? This is great." Asked about his draft absence, Harbaugh was forthcoming. "I was scouting in central California. I heard about a quarterback out there so I thought I'd take a look," Harbaugh said. "He looks good, but might need another year. If he drops we might take a chance on him."

May
Kansas City was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs on the 6th. The Royals become the third team this year to know their September 2011 fate. KC joins the Pirates, whose postseason plans were doused in early April, and the Mariners, who made it to May 1 before bowing out. "We'll continue to fight. There is still a lot of fight in these guys. We'll play Royals baseball for the rest of the ye--," manager Ned Yost said before nodding off.

Despite a .184 batting average, and a career low 0 home runs, Derek Jeter leads the league in All-Star votes. "It's still early," Jeter said. "We're still 40-some games from the break, but it's a nice honor. I would love to play, but if some young whipper-snapper leapfrogs me, well, that's how the cookie crumbles."

June
Albert Pujols is signed to the most lucrative contract in MLB history, one that should keep him a Cardinal for life. "I'm very happy to say that I'll be in St. Louis for the remainder of my career," Pujols said.

Ernie Els fails to follow up his 1997 U.S. Open title at Congressional Country Club with another at the Blue Course in Maryland. Tiger Woods, who was two shots back after Thursday's first round, won by six strokes. "I know Ernie has owned this course in the past," Woods said. "But I own this tour. Seriously, I've just finished negotiations and will take my seat as owner/operator/chair of the PGA tomorrow."

July
Giving up future All-Star catcher Jose Montero and a host of others, the New York Yankees have acquired Albert Pujols from the Cardinals. "We're two games back," NY GM Brian Cashman said. "We needed to make a move."

Terrelle Pryor, Dan Herron, Mike Adams, DeVier Posey, and Solomon Thomas declare for the NFL's supplemental draft. All will forfeit any remaining college eligibility, but their future is unknown. The supplemental draft is not ordered solely on record. Instead, teams go by clusters of wins, starting with six or less. Still, Pryor and Co. are unfazed. "At least I'll get to play ball soon," Pryor said of his five game suspension at Ohio State. When asked about violating coach Jim Tressel's trust by vowing to return to school and then applying for the "second" draft, Pryor asked his own question. "How much money does he make? A few mil? Yeah. I got $2,500 for items I possess but only 'own' after I leave school. Well, consider my uniform, helmet, Sugar Bowl MVP and locker up for sale because I'm done with it. What does Tress do? Look at Rivals Top 100, make some phone calls and call plays from his dusty Paul Brown playbook?"

Twins first baseman Justin Morneau, who leads the AL in homers and average, was placed on the 15-day DL with back stiffness and headaches. "We'll take things one day at a time," said Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire. "I see no reason he shouldn't be back and ready to go by mid-November."

August
The annual NFL Hall of Fame game is canceled along with the first two weeks of the preseason schedule. While it is doubtful a full slate of NFL games is possible, commissioner Roger Goodell is optimistic. "If the union signs tomorrow, we can still get in 18 games, and all would count," Goodell said. Despite rising concerns with injuries, Goodell remains focused on the longer season. "By week 18 players don't know what city they're playing in let alone why they play gladiator for a bunch of billionaires."

Tom Brady's oldest son, John, is grounded indefinitely after "falling" into his daddy's planted left leg. Celebrating his third birthday, John allegedly "slipped" on some wrapping paper and, while falling, turned his body into Tom's knee. Reacting accordingly, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell took action and mandated that all wrapping paper be pulled from the shelves.

September
With the NFL unable to sign free agents, a soon-to-be 42-year old quarterback signs with the Las Vegas Locomotives. "I don't know what will happen this year. No one does," said a smiling Brett Favre. "But I do know that I will do my best to bring a championship, or at least a few wins and a lawsuit, to the desert."

After Carmelo Anthony led the Knicks to the brink of a NBA Finals berth, LeBron James has forced his way out of Miami and into Madison Square Garden. "This has nothing to do with Miami as a city. The fans are the best in the league," James said. "This has nothing to do with DW's Finals MVP, or CB sleeping through the playoffs, they're the best teammates ever. This is about what I should do. The poll on my website said I should go to New York, so I'm taking my talents to the Big Apple."

With a 10-game lead in the Central, the Twins rest their lineup and roll out Sept. call-ups for their final nine games.Asked about doing a similar thing last year, and then flat-lining against the Yankees in the playoffs, Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer showed little worry. "Concern? No, there's none of that. No matter what, we'll get to hang another championship banner at Target Field next year."

October
The Yankees fire Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi hours after winning the World Series. "This team was built to win in four or five games, not seven," said Hank Steinbrenner, channeling his father's ghost. Whispers about the team's dissatisfaction with Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez have swelled to a near roar. Steinbrenner thinks he has a solution. "They just need to take Derek's lead. They need to learn how to be a Yankee. Twice I caught Albert with a goatee. That just won't stand."

Fox, that media giant that mixes cartoons, football and baseball with reruns of classic sitcoms, has been airing static since mid-August. A representative who declined to be named said the NFL work stoppage has taken the network down with it. "We really don't know what to do. Joe Buck just sits in a corner eating bon-bons and drinking Diet Rite. He sounds less coherent than Troy Aikman right now."

November
With a gutty second half, Iowa clinched a spot in the inaugural Big 10 title game in Indianapolis. The Hawkeyes will face Wisconsin to determine the conferences' Big 10 Rose Bowl participant. The winner will take on USC, who will be without head coach Lane Kiffin who last week signed a contract to coach the NFL's Houston Texans. "It should be a good game," Badgers head coach Brett Bielema said. "Indiana will finally get to see some D-I football."

The NFL and the players union came to an agreement on a new CBA effective immediately. The new deal includes an 18-game schedule, an 80% salary cut for players, a rookie wage scale that starts at 3-years/$10,000 per year and sole discretion for coaches to play "injured" players. No part of any contract can be guaranteed, with the lone exception that all holdouts will result in automatic breach of contract with a 100% buyout of remaining dollars. Player will not be able to sign with new team until length of said contract runs out. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell could not be reached for comment, but an owner, speaking off the record, said Goodell was prepared for a long lockout. "He told all the owners that the NFL had stashed billions waiting for this day. There was no way he wasn't going to win. He threatened to sue every player, even with no grounds. It didn't matter. He has the power and money to bury whomever and whatever he wants."

December
Undefeated Florida was left out of the BCS title game due to Oklahoma and Oregon running the table as well. Asked about his alma mater being dissed, former Gator Tim Tebow remained tight-lipped about the slight. "I have nothing to say about that," Tebow said before his Broncos hit the practice field.

In tragic news, Bill Hancock, executive director of the BCS, was killed when the plane he was on was struck by lightning. The investigation is ongoing, but some eerie details have emerged. "The bolt came from the ground, and only Mr. Hancock's window was hit," said a Denver firefighter speaking on anonymity. "One witness said the flash came from INVESCO Field."

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Every. Game. Matters. (Kind of.)

Mark Cuban wants to fund a playoff. He says that the BCS is “an inefficient business where there’s obviously a better way.” That better way would involve Cuban putting $500 million into an account and paying teams every five years assuming they are open to, and accept, a playoff bid. There had to be a quick rebuttal from the BCS before this got any legs. Executive director Bill Hancock tried to shoot it down.
"Given how much support our current system has among university presidents, athletics directors, coaches and athletes, I don't think any amount of financial inducement will make people abandon" the BCS.
Well, what else was he supposed to say? He could have stopped at "university presidents" because that's who really matters. AD's are going to follow the company line, especially when their salary is tied to the man in the bigger office. Coaches are tied to AD's and are hence tied to presidents. Players probably don't give a damn, unless the playoff format means they no longer get to take home a PlayStation 3 from some random December bowl game.

But when I hear about the popularity of the game being at it's highest point, I kind of chuckle. Yes, it probably is. But it has room to grow. Heck, a playoff might get it back to being more popular than the NFL. Seriously. The NFL has the sports world cornered from August to February. But think of the NBA vs. college hoops. There are fans of one or the other, and fans of both. There are more and more people leaving the NBA, and basketball in general. But no one leaves March Madness. When the brackets are announced, the hard core fans must move over to make room for that one guy that always touts his alma mater. The die-hards must acquiesce their beer money to the secretary that always seems to win the pool by picking mascots and jersey colors.

This is all a round about way of saying, Who cares about the regular season (more on that in a second)? Who cares if a playoff ends bowl games (it won't)? Who cares? Fans do.

Before I get to the regular season, I have to say this: The BCS has been better than I ever expected it to be. They've had a fair No. 1 vs. No. 2 match up more often than not. But the argument for most people isn't that it doesn't work, it's that it doesn't ALWAYS work. Auburn has been spurned before. Boise State, TCU and Utah have been spurned. Michigan State will get the honor of watching UConn play in a BCS bowl when the Huskies lost three more games than Sparty, and to far inferior teams. Cuban is right, there is simply a better way.

Now, about that pesky regular season. Bear with me.

I took a gander at the 2010 regular season and noticed something. Games pretty much start to not matter in week five or six. (Going on history, I used the following formula to disqualify teams: BCS conference teams were out with their second loss, except for SEC teams (designated with a +) who were out after a third loss. Non-AQ teams (designated with a ^) were out after their first loss. Any team that lost to an FCS school (designated with a *), at any point, were out.)

There are 120 teams in FBS football (66 AQ, 54 non-AQ), so follow the countdown to important games. To the results!


Week 1 (Sept. 4), 28 of 120 teams were eliminated:

^Akron, ^Arkansas State, ^Bowling Green, ^Colorado State, ^Eastern Mich., ^Hawaii, *Kansas, ^Lousiana-Lafayette, ^Marshall, ^Memphis, ^Miami (OH), ^Middle Tenn. State, ^Navy, ^New Mexico, ^North Texas, ^NIU, ^Rice, ^SMU, ^Southern Miss, ^San Jose State, ^Toledo,
^Tulsa, ^UAB, ^UNLV, USC (bowl ban), ^Utah, ^Western Kentucky, ^Western Michigan
64 of 66 AQ teams alvie; 28 of 54 non-AQ left

Week 2 (Sept. 11), 20 of 92 teams were eliminated:
^Army, ^BYU, ^Cent. Michigan, ^Buffalo, ^Ball State, ^Florida Atlantic, ^Florida International, ^Idaho, ^Kent State, ^Louisiana Tech, ^Louisiana-Monroe, ^New Mexico State, ^Ohio, ^Troy, ^Tulane, ^UCF, UCLA, ^UTEP, Virginia Tech, ^Wyoming
62 AQ teams alive; 10 non-AQ teams alive

Week 3 (Sept. 18), 15 of 72 teams were eliminated:
^Air Force, Cincinnati, Connecticut, ^East Carolina, ^Houston, Louisville, Duke, Iowa State, Minnesota, ^Nevada, Notre Dame, North Carolina, San Diego State, Washington, Washington State
51 AQ teams alive; 6 non-AQ teams alive

So, after three weeks of football, more than half of the 120 teams have been eliminated from BCS title game aspirations. For 63 teams, the whole "every week matters" really means the first month or so. Moving on.

Week 4 (Sept. 25), 10 of 57 teams were eliminated:
Arizona State, Cal, ^Fresno State, +Georgia, Georgia Tech, Oregon State, Pitt, Purdue, ^Temple, Wake Forest
43 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

Week 5 (Oct. 2), 10 of 47 teams were eliminated:
Boston College, Clemson, Illinois, Penn State, Rutgers, +Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, +Vanderbilt, Virginia
33 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive


Week 6 (Oct. 9), 7 of 37 teams were eliminated:
Baylor, Colorado, Indiana, +Kentucky, Miami (FL), South Florida, Texas A&M
26 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

After six weeks, there are 25-percent of teams with title hopes. For 30 teams, the next six to eight games are VERY important. For 90 teams, it's all about playing out the schedule and beating a rival while recruits are on campus.

Week 7 (Oct. 16), 6 of 30 teams were eliminated:
+Florida, Maryland, Michigan, +Mississippi, NC State, Syracuse


20 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

Week 8 (Oct. 23), 4 of 24 teams were eliminated:
Iowa, Kansas State, Northwestern, West Virginia

16 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

Week 9 (Oct. 30), 1 of 20 teams were eliminated:
Florida State
15 AQ teams alive; 4 non-AQ teams alive

Week 10 (Nov. 6), 5 of 19 teams were eliminated:
Arizona, Missouri, Oklahoma, +South Carolina, ^Utah
11 AQ teams alive; 3 non-AQ teams alive

Week 11 (Nov. 13), 1 of 14 teams were eliminated:
+Mississippi State


10 AQ teams alive; 3 non-AQ teams alive

Week 12 (Nov. 20), 1 of 13 teams were eliminated:
Nebraska

9 AQ teams alive; 3 non-AQ teams alive

Three weeks to go, and a whopping 10-percent of teams have title hopes. This is exactly what the BCS wants. Late season games with championship implications. If only...
Week 13 (Nov. 27), 3 of 12 teams were eliminated:
+Alabama, ^Boise State, Oklahoma State

7 AQ teams alive; 2 non-AQ teams alive

Week 14/Conf. Title (Dec. 4), 0 of 9 teams were eliminated:

7 AQ teams alive; 2 non-AQ teams alive

Wow! What an exhilarating ride those conference championship games were. The SEC was the only one with any impact on the BCS standings, and that was for all of a half. Maybe. Same goes for the Pac-10. No title game, but a rivalry game. Nice. For a half. Maybe.

Week 15 (Dec. 11)
7 of 9 teams were eliminated:
+Arkansas, Michigan State, +LSU, Ohio State, Stanford, TCU, Wisconsin
2 AQ teams alive (Auburn and Oregon); 0 non-AQ teams alive

Now that's what I'm talking about! So many teams came into the final week of the season with a chance to go to the title game, and there were so many upsets that it all worked out. The BCS has done it again! I'm sorry, I couldn't hear you over the joyous applause, what did you say? There was only one game in week 15? Army/Navy? How is that possible? TCU obviously played and lost, or else they would still be alive, and it's obvious that's not the case.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Cam's haul

Cameron Newton's season was (is) one for the ages. He led the country in quarterback rating (188.2), 3.2 points higher than Boise State's Kellen Moore), was 10th in TD passes (28), 10th overall and 2nd in rushing yards for a quarterback (1,409) behind Oregon RB LaMichael James (1,682) and Michigan QB Denard Robinson (1,643) and was 2nd in TD rushes (20), behind James (21), and tied with Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick and NIU RB Chad Spann.

He led the SEC in rushing yards, rushing TD, total offense and scoring, and was 6th in all-purpose yards. Yes, it was a magical season.

On Thursday night, Newton collected three awards for his 2010 performance: the Davey O'Brien Award as the best quarterback, the Walter Camp Award honoring the player of the year and the Maxwell Award for the outstanding player of the year. Of course, this is all a run-up to Saturday's victory lap, Heisman in hand.

There has been a little chatter about voters dropping Newton on their Heisman ballot -- or leaving him off altogether -- as punishment for his father's actions demanding payment for his son's commitment. That may well happen, but Newton not winning -- and winning big -- is about as likely as TCU playing for a national title. Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

Of course, the NCAA could have taken care of all of this by declaring Newton ineligible. Or, rather, keeping him ineligible instead of reinstating him only hours after they snatched his season away. The NCAA was protecting the athlete, and punished the crime by restricting his father's access to the program. Yawn.

I, for one, cannot wait for ESPN's latest "30 for 30" installment set to air immediately after the Heisman ceremony. The topic? The SMU program of the 1980s and their subsequent "Death Penalty" for a pay-for-play scandal. (As an aside, do you know who split time with Eric Dickerson in the "Pony Express" backfield? Craig James, father of locked-in-a-closet Adam James.)

I'm sure there will be some hand-wringing about the placement of the show, but considering the events of the last season I think it's fantastic. Imagine a live read promo toward the end of the Heisman presentation. Chris Fowler: "Thanks for joining us tonight, and a final congratulations to Cam Newton on a phenomenal season, the Heisman trophy and closing a loophole the NCAA hoped would never be exposed. Stay tuned for 'Pony Excess,' chronicling the SMU program of the 1980s that helped expose payments to student-athletes as a problem and the subsequent penalties that killed the program and restored college football to the pure and innocent game that you see today."

One can wish.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Kill-ing them softly

So, Jerry Kill it is.

Sure, Joel Maturi made some asinine statements about bringing in college football's Tubby Smith, but that had to be taken with a grain of salt. There was no way the U was going to get a big name, current head coach to come to the Twin Cities. Furthermore, what up-and-coming coordinator would want to have his first job be at a 50-years-and-counting below-average Big 10 school in a state that is difficult to recruit to and even more difficult to recruit in?

So, we get Jerry Kill. Taking Maturi at his word, this can only be a disappointment. Taking Maturi out of the equation -- which, hopefully, will happen before Kill's contract is up -- this is still a disappointment. I never expected a Peterson or Patterson to take the gig. No, I was hoping the brass would decide that Maturi would be gone when his contract ends, and if things didn't work out, he could take his high-flying, loud mouthed, should-have-been-coach Mike Leach with him.

The U had nothing to lose in going after Leach. All they had to do was give him a chance. He wins and graduates players. To my knowledge there was no off-field issue that caused any problems. So he supposedly locked a kid in a shed. Well, there's always multiple sides to a story. Leach had issues with the Texas Tech administration, and that may have played a part in his firing -- agin, sides and stories. He had a loud, grating mouth that did not endear him to Minnesotans With Power after a bowl game that the Red Raiders miraculously won. But, there in lies his mastery. Bowl games. He went to them and he WON them.

Yeah, on second thought, a guy that wins in September, pimps his school, plays in December, WINS in the winter and gets kids to walk in June need not apply here. With any luck he's looking for work in four years when we fire Kill. Of course, that final Kill loss may be to a Leach coached Illinois.